Friday, September 28, 2012

September 28, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:
R+0 - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+6 - Bloomberg
O+1 - AP/GfK
O+3 - Battleground
O+5 - Fox News

O+1.88% - Current RCP Average
O+1.49% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+1.28% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+1.34% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+2.04% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Today the WSJ/NBC poll drops out of the RCP average and the Fox News poll is included.  This results is a slight shift in the averages toward Obama.  Also I'm a little surprised to see Rasmussen tied.  Usually on a Friday Obama begins to pick up a point or two.  Typically, Obama is leading by 2 in the daily track my Monday.  It will be unsurprising if that happens again this weekend.

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