ABC/Washington Post Poll - October 15, 2012Likely Voter, 923 sample size, Obama Leads 49-46, 2% undecided.
ABC/WaPo continues it tradition of releasing polls that severely undersample Republicans and oversample Independents. The D/R/I for this poll is 35/26/39, which is a terrible sample. D+9 and over counting Independents by about 10 points. Note that they report the sample as 35/26/33, with no explanation of what the other 6% are, if they aren't Independents. Just a weird sampling methodology. It's making me start to respect Zogby. Independents favor Romney by 6 points. Running their numbers through the reweight model we get:
O+3 - Current result
O+1.8 - 2008 turnout
R+1.5 - D+3 turnout
R+4.0 - 2010 turnout
R+4.1 - 2004 turnout
R+5.9 - Rasmussen Party ID
This is a good poll for Romney, and shows him holding his lead comfortably.