CBS Poll - October 23, 2012Likely Voter, 790 sample size, Obama leads 48-46, 4% undecided.
I'm not going to try to spin this one. This poll is very good for Obama, and his campaign is hoping that it is representative of the election. It is an outlier, in that it doesn't track with other polling results. First of all the D/R/I on this poll is dead even 32/32/38. Additionally, Independents in the poll favor Obama by 6 points. Showing an Obama lead with this sample is a very good result for the Democrats.
Putting the results into the reweighting models we get the following:
O+2 - Current result
O+6.0 - 2008 turnout model
O+3.0 - D+3 turnout model
O+0.5 - 2010 turnout model
O+0.5 - 2004 turnout model
R+1.5 - Rasmussen Party ID
These results are fairly similar to the Zogby results. Again, there is no way to spin this, other than to note that the internals don't match the results of most other polls.