CBS/NYT Poll - October 30, 2012Likely Voter, 563 sample size, Obama leads 48-47, 3% undecided.
Let's get the obvious out of the way first. This is a horrible poll. A sample size of 563 is bordering on malpractice, and if RCP had any respect they would reject this poll and not include it. They are claiming to be able to measure the preferences of the Republicans across the country from the responses of 175 people.
Compared to the last time this poll was run, this poll is excellent for Romney. Previously this poll had Obama leading by 2 with a sample that was dead even with Democrats and Republicans both at 32% and Independents favoring Obama by 6. While the top line poll results didn't change much, the sample did. It is now D+5 with a D/R/I of 36/31/33. Additionally, Independents now favor Romney by 12 points, an 18 point swing in one week. All of this data points to the previous poll being an outlier, since it did not match any of the other polls at the time.
Putting the results into the reweighting models we get the following:
O+1 - Current result
O+1.8 - 2008 turnout model
R+1.1 - D+3 turnout model
R+3.5 - 2010 turnout model
R+3.5 - 2004 turnout model
R+5.3 - Rasmussen Party ID
This poll is in alignment with the results of the other polls, but trends towards Obama compared to the others. Bottom line, this is about as good as it gets for Obama.