Tuesday, October 30, 2012

CBS/NYT Poll - October 30, 2012

Likely Voter, 563 sample size, Obama leads 48-47, 3% undecided.

Let's get the obvious out of the way first.  This is a horrible poll.  A sample size of 563 is bordering on malpractice, and if RCP had any respect they would reject this poll and not include it.  They are claiming to be able to measure the preferences of the Republicans across the country from the responses of 175 people.

Compared to the last time this poll was run, this poll is excellent for Romney.  Previously this poll had Obama leading by 2 with a sample that was dead even with Democrats and Republicans both at 32% and Independents favoring Obama by 6.  While the top line poll results didn't change much, the sample did.  It is now D+5 with a D/R/I of 36/31/33.  Additionally, Independents now favor Romney by 12 points, an 18 point swing in one week.  All of this data points to the previous poll being an outlier, since it did not match any of the other polls at the time.

Putting the results into the reweighting models we get the following:
O+1 - Current result
O+1.8 - 2008 turnout model
R+1.1 - D+3 turnout model
R+3.5 - 2010 turnout model
R+3.5 - 2004 turnout model
R+5.3 - Rasmussen Party ID

This poll is in alignment with the results of the other polls, but trends towards Obama compared to the others.  Bottom line, this is about as good as it gets for Obama.

14 comments:

  1. Another garbage poll that blatantly makes itself useless. Either raise the D+ sample to 2008 levels or higher with Romney winning Is by a huge margin, or say Obama is winning independents.

    At the least, I think it's obvious there's a conscious effort by media paid pollsters to give the appearance it's tied. Listening to most of the mainstream media (outside the far left NBC types), the narrative is it's even. After Romney's 47% "gaffe", they were proclaiming Obama as the leaderer. And we all know how the media was in 2008. Why are they settling for the tie narrative now?

    Does this really mean Romney is well ahead? I can see it, and I sure hope so.

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    1. I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature (I think the government and most politicians are too incompetent to pull a big conspiracy off), but this constant nonsense with the polls worries me...as in, are we being set up so they can "sell" stealing the election to the general public? As in, "Well, of course this is a legitimate result! Look how close the polls were right before the election!" I don't think they have the ability to pull something like that off, but I worry because they surely don't have anything in the way of morals to stop them if they got it into their heads that they *could* get away with something like that.

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    2. No, the stealing elections concern is not credible, unless the voting is very close (no more than 10,000). When you get into full percentage point wins in states, you can't steal an election because you can't manufacture 10s of thousands of fraudulent votes without it being obvious. You can't have the city of Dayton turnout 30,000 more voters than they have residents.

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    3. Well, I hope not Dave. But I guarantee you there are folks on that side trying to figure out ways to do it. I don't think it can be done either, but I surely wouldn't put it past them trying. Not this crew of thugs.

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    4. Oh I agree, they are definitely committing voter fraud, but I don't think they can do enough of it to matter in the election. I can see them getting Nevada into Obama's column through fraud, but at the end of the day, Romney will still win.

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  2. Well, even pundits on Fox News, save for Dick Morris and Ann Coulter, say it's tied. In fact, Doug Schoen believes that if Romney doesn't do something that by Thursday Obama could be in the lead (based on Hurricane Sandra).

    IMO, at this point Romney has a good lead and those who haven't voted have already made up their minds.

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    1. re: Fox News...just being slightly - and I mean slightly - to the right of CNN is *not* the same thing as "fair and balanced". Keep that in mind if you watch FNC. There are a few exceptions at FNC, but I would bet you the farm and everything on it that the general political profile of the staff there is a pretty close match to what you'd find at CNN or any other MSM outlet. The "fair and balanced" thing is mostly just marketing.

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    2. Maybe, but the Jekyll and Hyde there is annoying. Before the first debate nearly everyone (except for again Dick Morris and Ann Coulter) were slamming the Romney campaign as they were behind in the polls then afterward it's sunshine and lollipops and astonishment at the reversal to now with some, albeit a few, with the whole "fear porn" going on.

      We'll see on Tuesday but even with the hurricane going on (and Chris Christie giving Obama a boost), Romney seems to be poised for a decent victory *fingers crossed*.

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    3. Well, I pay very close to zero attention to pundits, including Morris and especially Coulter (can't stand her, even when I agree with her). Just like the pollsters, they're in the business of selling stuff, and what they're selling often has little to nothing to do with truth or accuracy. I stopped watching Fox News regularly during their outlandish Hurricane Katrina coverage. I've not missed it a bit.

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    4. I agree about Fox News. I really get mad at Bill O'Reilly and Neil Cavuto (and I especially like Neil). They comment on polls showing "Idiot"ahead or tied with Romney. They never mention the internals showing D+6 or 8. It makes my blood boil. Don't they realize if "Idiot" gets re-elected he'll do his best to close down Fox News?

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    5. I agree about Fox News. I really get mad at Bill O'Reilly and Neil Cavuto (and I especially like Neil). They comment on polls showing "Idiot"ahead or tied with Romney. They never mention the internals showing D+6 or 8. It makes my blood boil. Don't they realize if "Idiot" gets re-elected he'll do his best to close down Fox News?

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    6. Yeah, that does drive me nuts when they post a poll but don't look into the internals. Only a couple people on there do (Karl Rove I believe is one), but it is rare.

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  3. I don't want to get cocky and overconfident, but if once again independents are going for Romney by over double digits, I just don't see how he loses.

    My real fear though now is the Senate, Massachusetts is looking like it's going to once again go full retard, I can't believe Warren is winning by such a margin in the polls. It looks like it's going to come down to George Allen in Virginia, Josh Mandel in Ohio, or Todd Akin.

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    1. Warren wanted another debate, Brown didn't. Brown is winning.

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