IBD/TIPP Poll - October 10, 2012Likely Voter, 757 sample size, Romney leads 49-44, 6% undecided.
This is a tracking poll, so like Rasmussen, I'm not going to be writing this poll up every day. However, I'll do one more analysis of this poll, since it shifted so much since yesterday. Like yesterday, it has a D/R/I of 39/31/30. Independent preference has expanded from 18% to 20% in one day.
If you are suspecting that the reweighting results are going to be insane, you are right.
R+5 - Current result
R+7.5 - 2008 turnout
R+12.6 - 2010 turnout
R+12.7 - 2004 turnout
R+14.4 - Rasmussen Party ID
If this poll is correct, Romney will win California.