Monmouth/Survey USA Poll - October 11, 2012Likely Voter, 1360 sample size, Romney Leads 47-46, 5% undecided.
A new poll gets included in the RCP average, with a polls for Monmouth University conducted by Survey USA. The D/R/I for this poll is 35/32/33, which isn't too bad for this cycle. It is in line with many of the other polls. Independents favor Romney by 3 points. Running their numbers through the reweight model we get:
R+1 - Current result
O+0.6 - 2008 turnout
R+4.7 - 2010 turnout
R+4.8 - 2004 turnout
R+6.6 - Rasmussen Party ID
Another poll showing Obama barely squeaking by if he gets turnout equal to 2008. All other models put Romney comfortably ahead.