October 1, 2012 Analysis
O+3 - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+6 - Bloomberg
O+2 - ABC/WaPo
O+2 - Battleground
O+5 - Fox News
O+2.25% - Current RCP Average
O+3.14% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
O+0.17% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
O+0.13% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+0.68% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
With the AP/GfK poll dropping out of the RCP average, all of the polls now included have a defensible D/R/I sample and are pretty close to each other. This is likely the best view of the current race we have seen in a long time (if ever).
As can be seen above, the race is tied under all turnout models, except the 2008 model. If the election were held today, it would come down to which party turns out their base in a higher proportion. Also note that when you get into the <0.5% range you reach the point where the popular winner may not win the election. This could be bad for Obama, with him running up large leads in states like California and New York, only to see Ohio (and the presidency) slip away.