October 10, 2012 Ohio AnalysisDid you know I have a model for Ohio as well? You probably didn't. I use the same methodology I use for the national numbers, then adjust for different historical turnout models. Let me talk for a moment about the models.
Ohio has swung a great deal over the last few years. In 2004 they were R+5, but in 2008 they were D+8. I am using 4 models in this reweight, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2012. The 2012 number is based on registration estimates made by a couple professors at Ohio State. Ohio does not have party identification, so you can't look the current party split up on the Secretary of State web site. So take the 2012 model with a grain of salt.
2004 D/R/I - 35/40/25 - R+5
2008 D/R/I - 39/31/30 - D+8
2010 D/R/I - 36/37/27 - R+1
2012 D/R/I - 37/37/26 - Even
O+1 - Survey USA
O+4 - CNN/ORG
R+1 - ARG
R+1 - WeAsk
O+1 - Rasmussen
O+0.80% - Current RCP Average
R+7.77% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+1.68% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.56% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.84% - Average using the 2012 registration model
If Ohio turnout is similar to 2010, then Ohio will easily turn red this year. Even if turnout is similar to 2008, then Obama would barely hold the state.