October 14, 2012 AnalysisPolls included:
R+1 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
O+1 - IBD/Tipp
R+4 - Pew
Even - Wash Times/Zogby
R+1 - Survey USA
R+1.00% - Current RCP Average
O+0.43% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.52% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.54% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.30% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
R+2.30% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
All of the tracking polls are beginning their weekend shift toward Obama. This is a normal event and will start being corrected by Tuesday.
The loss of the Battleground poll from the average eliminates the one piece of good news that Obama had in the average. All polls now are taken from after the first debate.
For another day, the race is remaining stable with Romney holding a strong lead nationally. The next debate on Tuesday will be the first opportunity for a change in the dynamics of the race.