October 16, 2012 AnalysisPolls included:
R+1 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
Even - IBD/Tipp
R+4 - Pew
O+3 - ABC/WaPo
R+1 - Survey USA
R+0.67% - Current RCP Average
O+0.59% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.23% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.51% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.54% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.33% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
As I expected, Rasmussen dropped a point for Romney yesterday. He should go back up to 2 today as the Monday poll kicks in. IBD/Tipp balanced out this 1 point drop, with a 1 point gain. The results of all the models are almost identical to yesterday.
Obviously, with the debate tonight things are likely to change a great deal in the next few days.