October 21, 2012 Ohio UpdateTwo new polls in the RCP Ohio average, PPP and Gravis. It is really hard to keep from suspecting some form of conspiracy, when both polls reweighted their samples to be more favorable to Obama from the last time they were run. The result is that neither poll shows Romney leading, when he clearly is if you examine the internals.
PPP Obama leads 49-48. They have broadened from the D+4 they used last time to D+8, D/R/I of 42/35/23. Independents favor Romney by 7%. Reweighting this poll using the various turnout models we get the following:
R+9.79% - Using the 2004 turnout model
R+0.77% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+6.70% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+6.04% - Using the 2012 registration model
R+3.95% - Using a D+3 turnout model
Again, Romney leads in all turnout models, including if the electorate matches 2008. I'm noticing a pattern.
With Gravis it is a 47-47 tie. This one is even worse than PPP, if you can believe it. It is D+9 with a D/R/I of 41/32/27. Independents favor Romney by an incredible 19% (52-33), yet somehow Romney can only eek out a tie. Reweighting this poll using the various turnout models we get the following:
R+12.48% - Using the 2004 turnout model
R+3.27% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+9.34% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+8.62% - Using the 2012 registration model
R+6.55% - Using a D+3 turnout model
If the electorate in Ohio matched 2008, Romney would be ahead by over 3 points. This makes 6 of the 8 polls used in the RCP average that over sample to match or exceed the 2008 turnout, yet even with this insane artificial boost, Obama can only manage a 2 point lead.
Here are the results of averaging all of the current polls in the RCP average:
O+3 - Survey USA
O+4 - CNN/ORG
R+1 - ARG
O+1 - Rasmussen
Even - Gravis
O+6 - NBC/WSJ
O+1 - PPP
O+3 - Fox
O+2.13% - Current RCP Average
R+8.61% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+0.74% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.43% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+6.04% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+2.58% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
Ohio is slipping away from Obama, since even in their most optimistic model for this year (D+3) they are close to 3 points behind in Ohio. This matches the activities of the Obama campaign, as they begin to stop campaigning in Ohio and start trying to shore up everything that is left to keep Romney from getting those last 4 EVs he needs. This is why you are seeing campaigning in NH, CO, IA,WI, and NV. If Obama loses any of them, he loses.