October 28, 2012 AnalysisPolls included:
R+4 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+2.1 - IBD/Tipp
R+1 - ABC/WaPo
R+2 - Battleground
Even - NBC/WSJ
R+3 - Monmouth
O+3 - Zogby
O+2 - CBS
R+2 - AP/GfK
R+0.99% - Current RCP Average
O+0.51% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.23% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.47% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.50% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.25% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
The meme over the last two days has been the "Romney's momentum has stalled" with various people, like Nate Silver trying to prove that with dubious mathematics. Romney's momentum has only stalled in the sense that there is no one left to convince. Rasmussen moved out to a 4 point lead, with a 5 point lead in his swing state tracking poll. Gallup remained at 5. Even the horribly over sampled IBD/Tipp poll moved toward Romney as some undecideds decided to vote for him. Independents are favoring Romney by insane amounts. Rasmussen is seeing Romney lead them by 23 points. On the Economy sub samples, Romney is simply crushing Obama.
This has led to the second meme that is developing. There really needs to be a name for this one, similar to Godwin's Law (the first person to call the other a Nazi loses). Losing campaigns always fall back on "we might lose the popular vote, but still win the Electoral College". Several media outlets started floating this one yesterday pointing to "Ohio's stubborn refusal to follow national trends and support Romney". Rubbish. If Romney wins nationally by over 2 points, he will win the Electoral College too. And considering where the Rasmussen and Gallup party identification numbers are sitting right now, a 5 or 6 point Romney win is looking very possible.
And Romney is leading in Ohio. I will offer further proof in my next post.