## October 20, 2012 Ohio Update

The new Fox Ohio poll was causing considerable discussion last night. I went ahead and updated my Ohio analysis using this poll.First of all, this poll is yet another poll with a ridiculous Democrat over sample of D+8. There are a lot of polling firms that will have a lot of egg on their faces come November, because they have been assuming turnout that matches 2008. This poll in particular finds a preference by Independents for Romney of

*an incredible 24%*. With only 23% Independents in the sample, this preference is severely dampened.

Reweighting this poll using the various turnout models we get the following:

R+9.95% - Using the 2004 turnout model

R+1.35% - Using the 2008 turnout model

R+7.02% - Using the 2010 turnout model

R+6.28% - Using the 2012 registration model

R+4.43% - Using a D+3 turnout model

Romney has a large, healthy lead in all Ohio turnout models,

*including if the electorate matches 2008.*

Here are the results of averaging all of the current polls in the RCP average:

Polls included:

O+3 - Survey USA

O+4 - CNN/ORG

R+1 - ARG

O+1 - Rasmussen

R+1 - Gravis

O+6 - NBC/WSJ

O+5 - PPP

O+3 - Fox

O+2.50% - Current RCP Average

R+7.75% - Average using the 2004 turnout model

O+1.72% - Average using the 2008 turnout model

R+4.53% - Average using the 2010 turnout model

R+3.82% - Average using the 2012 registration model

R+1.65% - Average using the D+3 turnout model

With this new Fox poll, Romney extends his lead in Ohio by about a half a point across all turnout models.

Hi Dave,

ReplyDeleteNew visitor (found through Ace's site) but wanted to say thanks for your analysis; puts things in perspective. If it holds true on election day, got to wonder what the excuses will be from the so-called polling experts.

You are most welcome.

DeleteI came across these updated OH absentee numbers by county. I won't get a good look at them until tomorrow, but we can easily bound Obama's possible turn-out to under 2008 levels.

ReplyDeleteI know you already knew this, but it's nice to have firm numbers!

http://tinyurl.com/92cxc4e

Yeah, I love confirmation. I get nervous too.

DeleteNice work, and thanks for the update in the comments at Ace today.

ReplyDelete