October 22, 2012 Analysis
Welcoming Gallup to the averagesThanks to all of the criticism that Gallup has been getting, they revealed a bit of their internals over the weekend. Enough that I think I can estimate their poll enough to include it in my averages. Since RCP just uses top line results, I don't think I can be criticized for lack of integrity. I am using a D/R/I for Gallup of 36/37/27 and assuming no preference by Independents. This might be a little conservative, but it lets me get them into the averages. If that ridiculous Tipp poll can be included, Gallup should be too.
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+7 - Gallup
O+6 - IBD/Tipp
R+2 - Battleground
Even - NBC/WSJ
O+3 - Hartford Courant/UConn
R+0.38% - Current RCP Average
R+0.37% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.87% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.86% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.94% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.42% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Several polls were dropped over night, and the new Battleground and NBC/WSJ polls were added. People hoping for an Obama victory should be worried, since the only two polls that are good news for him are Tipp and UConn, where both firms do not have a reputation for accuracy.
With this update, every average moves into an advantage for Romney, even the 2008 turnout model.