October 25, 2012 Ohio UpdateRasmussen updated his Ohio poll to reflect movement toward Romney, and a tie. Also, Survey USA released a new poll which did not change from their last Ohio poll.
The big news last night was the Time Obama +5 poll, that everyone was concerned about. Don't be. It is a D+10 poll where Independents favor Romney by 14 points. Also, someone made a math error in the poll, because when I add up the respondents, I get 694 likely voters/already voted. Not the 742 that they are touting. In any case, putting their numbers through my Ohio model, we get:
R+8.64% - Using the 2004 turnout model
O+1.28% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.27% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.54% - Using the 2012 registration model
R+2.24% - Using a D+3 turnout model
In other words, it is exactly in line with the other Ohio polls, off by a few tenths of a percent in all turnout models. The Ohio averages now include 8 polls, so the fidelity is getting to be pretty good.
O+3 - Survey USA
Even - Rasmussen
Even - Gravis
O+1 - PPP
O+3 - Fox
Even - Suffolk
O+5 - Time
O+2.13% - Current RCP Average
R+8.83% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+0.64% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.61% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.89% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+2.72% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
The results shifted less than 0.05% in all of the reweighted models. Romney continues to lead Obama by a comfortable margin.