Wednesday, October 3, 2012

October 3, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:
O+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+2 - ABC/WaPo
O+4 - Quinipiac
O+7 - NPR
Even - National Journal

O+3.00% - Current RCP Average
O+3.31% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+1.93% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+2.05% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+3.35% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

RCP dropped a number of polls yesterday, including the Fox poll and the Zogby poll that I analyzed last night.  I'm not sure why they dropped it, since they just added it yesterday.  New polls included in the average include the National Journal and NPR polls.

Romney's advantage has increased across the board and is reflected in almost a full point of support on average across the 2010, 2004, and Rasmussen Party ID turnout models.  At this point, Romney enjoys a healthy lead in the race, and would win the election handily if it were held today.


  1. Dave, what do you make of the apparent wild swings in the Independent vote in the daily Rasmussen poll?

  2. I'm honestly not sure what to make of Rasmussen right now. If I take out his D+3 bias he has been showing a tie for a few days.

  3. Unless Romney has some sort of fatal gaffe (not going to happen) regardless of the performance tonight, I see Romney's stance in the race will improve considerably after the debates.

    I know what "converted" me to being a Romney supporter in the GOP Primary was watching him in the debates. I would argue he's the most articulate Presidential candidate the GOP has had since Reagan. The man oozes competence.

    But seeing the two on stage and Romney calling out Obama on his record is going to move the polls in Romney's direction.

    I just hope we see some sharper elbows from Romney, like when he destroyed Santorum and Newt in the debates.

  4. Someone in one of the comments sections reports that Ras has released September Party ID and it's still R+3. Have you heard anything about this?

  5. Not yet, but I'll go look for it. If that is true, then it is a huge deal.

  6. I was going to ask about updated Rasmussen numbers as well.

    Dave, Nice work as usual! One question, I saw one of your comments -- "under (what I consider to be) reasonable models" -- about where are you thinking?

  7. I'm thinking 2010 turnout is the probable result 36/36/28. Maybe 35/35/30.

    Dem support won't stay at 2008 levels, it will drop. Republicans will vote this time, unlike in 2008. Both parties have shown they can turn out their base, and they will. The Dem base never included that extra 2% they got in 2008, those were "registered for 2008 only" Democrats.

    That said, I am really curious about the Sept Rasmussen poll. I've been expecting something similar to July, and this +3 rumor has me on edge.

    1. I'm still up-in-the-air. So, I'm thinking there is a background long-term democratic trend due to minority growth, but this was rapidly inflated in 2008. That will drop, as you said.

      We have good proxy data on that, dem registration is down significantly from 2008. Meanwhile, republicans have held stable. What I just haven't had enough data to really clamp down is where the down-slope from the popped 2008 bubble and the background growth meet. Where that is in relation to republican reg is important. If that makes sense, sorry if I did a bad job explaining it.

      I fear parity is maybe a bit optimistic, but Barone's observation is heartening.

      And minority turn-out is coupled more strongly to the state of the economy, which sucks.

  8. It's R+2.6 Sept R+2.6 quarter

  9. I still need the exact breakdown, not just R+2.6. Rasmussen still hasn't posted it on his site, so I continue waiting.

    However, R+2.6 is going to be a big f'in deal.

  10. R 36.8 D 34.2 I 29.0