Saturday, October 6, 2012

October 6, 2012 Analysis - Update

I'm updating today's analysis, because it is just so delicious.  RCP just dumped two polls out of their average, and it is devastating for Obama.

Polls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+3 - CNN/ORG
Even - National Journal
O+3 - NBC/WSJ


O+1.00% - Current RCP Average
O+0.50% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.47% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.63% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.09% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Even with a 2008 turnout model, Obama would barely eke out a victory, and would be in danger of losing in the Electoral College anyway.  Devastating for Obama, and explains why they released their funding numbers today.  They need to buck up their base now, and can't wait for Monday.

8 comments:

  1. Rasmussen's tracking has Romney +2?!

    It's been holding steady at O+2 since before the debate.

    I don't have access to his raw data, but does he weight all three days equally?

    Please correct me where wrong, but if so, and assuming an isometrically weighted 3 day rolling average and all the previous days were +2 then the last sampling day to roll on for Romney was R+10.

    (2 + 2 + [x])/3 = -2
    [x] = -10

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You read it right, R+2. You analysis is correct, Romney had a monster day in yesterday's poll.

      Delete
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