October 6, 2012 Analysis - UpdateI'm updating today's analysis, because it is just so delicious. RCP just dumped two polls out of their average, and it is devastating for Obama.
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+3 - CNN/ORG
Even - National Journal
O+3 - NBC/WSJ
O+1.00% - Current RCP Average
O+0.50% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.47% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.63% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.09% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Even with a 2008 turnout model, Obama would barely eke out a victory, and would be in danger of losing in the Electoral College anyway. Devastating for Obama, and explains why they released their funding numbers today. They need to buck up their base now, and can't wait for Monday.