October 8, 2012 Analysis
Even - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+3 - CNN/ORG
Even - National Journal
O+3 - NBC/WSJ
O+1 - Battleground
O+1.40% - Current RCP Average
O+1.01% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+3.75% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.82% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.40% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Another drop in Rasmussen with Independent advantage for Romney dropping to 3%. Saturday and Sunday were better for Obama than Friday. We should see another drop tomorrow and an Obama lead as Friday falls off the average, then a return to Even on Wednesday as Saturday and Sunday drop off.
The new Battleground poll comes back into the average, and it provides good numbers for Romney as well.
Overall, Romney is still showing excellent polling results. Obama still needs close to a 2008 turnout advantage to win the election. Under all reasonable turnout models, Romney still holds a decisive advantage.