## Pew Poll - October 29, 2012

Likely Voter, 1495 sample size, Tied 47-47, 6% undecided.

October 8th was the last time the Pew poll was published. At that time they were showing a Romney lead of 4, which has now become a tie. Before you get worried about Obama suddenly gaining support, the D/R/I of that 10/8 poll was 33.4/36.3/30.3 or R+3. The D/R/I of this poll is 35/34/30 or D+1. Their sample shifted 4 point toward the Democrats and their results also shifted 4 points toward Obama. Independents favor Romney by 8 points.

Putting these results through the models, we get the following:

Even - Current result

O+2.4 - 2008 turnout

R+0.4 - D+3 turnout

R+2.7 - 2010 turnout

R+2.7 - 2004 turnout

R+4.6 - Rasmussen Party ID

This poll is in line with the Battleground poll. Just like that poll, this poll seems off. An 8 point lead among 30% of the respondents should translate into a 2.4% lead, not a tie. Note that my 2010 and 2004 turnout models produce almost exactly that expected result, 2.7%.

Perhaps I'm missing something, but how can a tie with a D+1 sample result in R+0.4 when you shift the sample to D+3?

ReplyDeleteGreat analysis in general, by the way! I've been closely reading your blog for a couple of weeks now.