Quinnipaic Poll - October 2, 2012
Likely Voter, 1912 sample size, Obama leads 49-45, 4% undecided.
Quinnipiac released a poll today that has a very large sample size. The Partisan ID of this poll is pretty odd with 500 Republicans, 593 Democrats, 706 Independents, and 133 "Other". What exactly "other" is difficult to figure out. It is also hard to figure out if their 2% Ind preference for Romney includes the "other" or not. I am lumping these 113 in with the 706 for a D/R/I of 31/26/43. This is a really odd sample, with Independents considerably over sampled compared to both parties.
The turnout models give the following results:
O+4 - Current result
O+5.1 - 2008 turnout
R+0.9 - 2010 turnout
R+1.0 - 2004 turnout
R+2.6 - Rasmussen Party ID
Because of the huge Ind oversample, adjusting to historic turnout models forces a wider distribution in both directions.