Really Smart Analysis from Josh Jordan (@numbersmuncher)
I'm not going to try to paraphrase what he is saying. It is a similar argument to what I have been saying about Ohio, and is backed up by the Ohio reweights I've been doing.
Just go read it.
I will quote his final point though. I fully agree with it.
We’ll know in a little over a week which polls are right between national and Ohio, but history would suggest that come Election Day we’ll be looking back at the Ohio polls and trying to figure out how they could be so wrong.
Well, I won't be trying to figure out why they were so wrong, I'll be able to tell you.