Senate Update - October 24, 2012With the Mourdock kerfuffle last night, I figured I would update my Senate odds. I'm going to call this the anti-Silver prediction, since I'm going to make some optimistic assumptions and discount a few polls in the process. Hell, if he can do it and land a gig and the NYT, why can't I?
Here is my opinion on all 16 of the current Senate races I am following.
- Nebraska 100% - This is Ben Nelson's seat, and Deb Fisher locked it up ages ago.
- Indiana 100% - Mourdock is up by 5 in this race, with 2 weeks to go and Romney leading by 15 in the state. He will win this, no matter how much the media tries to twist the rape comment.
- Nevada 100% - Heller is up 7 and over the 50% mark. This race is over.
- Wisconsin 75% - Rasmussen is showing Thompson with a 2 point lead, and is polling better than Romney. As Romney's lead grows, so will Thompson's.
- Montana 60% - The polling didn't change, but my opinion did. Tester is an incumbent and stuck at 48%. Undecideds will break toward Berg, and Romney will have coattails.
- Massachusetts 40% - Warren is holding her lead, but I distrust some of this fly-by-night polling. I think she really leads by 2 in this race. Brown will need to win the turnout battle.
- Virginia 60% - Kaine is ahead 49-48 in Rasmussen. I think Obama's Navy gaffe is going to sink his chances, and Allen will pick up the 2 points he needs.
- Florida 40% - Mack continues to trail, but Nelson seems to have a ceiling of 47%. If Mack was closer, I would increase my confidence in this race.
- Ohio 75% - Mandell is catching up to Brown in all the "official" polls. However, they are all the same ones that are over sampling Democrats from D+6 to D+11 (7 polls like this now in the RCP average). I don't trust these polls. If you look inside them and adjust to a normal Ohio turnout, Mandell leads. Besides, even in the skewed versions of the polls, Brown can't get to 50%.
- New Mexico 10% - I don't think anyone is bother to even poll here any longer. Pretty sure the Dems will win this race.
- Missouri 35% - No new polling here. It is a weird race, but I like Akin's chances with Romney leading in the state by 12.
- Michigan 10% - No one is even polling this race.
- Pennsylvania 40% - Casey's top line number is stuck in the mid 40s, just like OH, MT, and FL. Some polls are showing Smith getting very close. This would be my upset special.
- Connecticut 40% - McMahon is getting close again, and Murphy still can't break 50%. One recent poll puts her within 1.
Odds of winning the Senate = 89.1%
Update: Fortunately, Optimizer is checking my math. I left two races off the list:
- North Dakota 100% - Berg is now up 5 points in the race, almost to 50%, and Romney will win by double digits.
- Maine 10% - The Independent will win this race. He could decide to caucus with the GOP, especially if it means being in the majority.