Some trends over the last few daysLet's take another look at the poll model trend lines over the last few days. I've shown this graph a couple times so far, and I want to point out the last 6 days.
On October 25th, the models broke from the steady state they have been holding for about two weeks. This occurred right after the first of the new emails broke that the Administration knew Benghazi was a terror attack within the first 2 hours of the incident.
Since then, we are seeing a slow increase in support for Romney across all of the models. They have all moved about 0.6 of point in the last 6 days. During the same period we have seen significant erosion of Obama job approval rating.
Note that the two things that are not tracking this movement are the RCP average itself and Rasmussen's daily track. In the case of RCP, the new polls moving into the average have offset the Romney gains by increasing their Democrat sample. Rasmussen has a similar problem, but that is caused by his typical sampling issue over weekends.