Final? ABC/WaPo Poll - November 5, 2012Likely Voter, 2345 sample size, Obama leads 50-47, 1% undecided.
I'm not sure if ABC/WaPo will run this tracking poll one more time, but if they do I may ignore it. This tracking poll has been one of the silliest polls in the last few days. It keeps increasing their sample of Democrats and unsurprisingly Obama's support at the same time. Consider the following:
We've moved from D+3, to D+4, to D+6. At the same time:
We've moved from Romney +1 to Obama +3. Independents continue to support Romney by 2 points, as they did yesterday.
Putting these results through the models, we get the following:
O+3 - Current result
O+3.9 - 2008 turnout
O+0.8 - D+3 turnout
R+1.6 - 2010 turnout
R+1.8 - 2004 turnout
R+5.0 - Rasmussen Party ID
At this point this poll does not make a prediction on who will win the race. However, it indicates the following possible results:
Using a D+3 model Obama wins 50-49
Using an Even turnout Romney wins 50-48.5
Using an R+5.8 turnout Romney wins 52-47