Final Monmouth Poll - November 5, 2012Likely Voter, 1417 sample size, Tied 48-48, 2% undecided.
Monmouth just released their final poll, and it matches every other poll, showing a tie. The pollsters really don't want to make a call this election. It is very similar to the last poll where they showed a 3 point Romney lead. The D/R/I is D+4 at 35/31/34 which matches the last time this poll was conducted. The Independent preference also matches the 16 point Romney lead we saw two weeks ago.
Notice however that Obama is getting more crossover support than Romney, which I find to be a little hard to believe. The VERY odd thing in this poll though can be seen in the following table:
Of the undecideds that made up their minds, ALL of them went to Obama. This strains credulity, and is the ONLY reason why this poll shows a tie. Even a pessimistic, but believable 50/50 split would have resulted in a 49.5-46.5 lead for Romney.
Putting these results through the models, we get the following:
Tied - Current result
O+2.0 - 2008 turnout
R+0.9 - D+3 turnout
R+3.3 - 2010 turnout
R+3.4 - 2004 turnout
R+6.7 - Rasmussen Party ID
Like others, this poll does not make a prediction on who will win the race. However, it indicates the following possible results:
Using a D+3 model Romney wins 50-49
Using an Even turnout Romney wins 51-48
Using an R+5.8 turnout Romney wins 54-47